EL NEW YORK TIMES DECIA QUE FELIX HERNANDEZ DEBIA RECIBIR EL CY YOUNG

November 17, 2010, 10:08 pm

Why Felix Hernandez Should Win Cy Young

By TYLER KEPNER

2:21 p.m. |Update: Hernandez Wins A.L. Cy Young

With the fewest victories ever by a starting pitcher so honored in a full season, the Seattle Mariners ace Felix Hernandez won the American League Cy Young Award over Tampa Bay's David Price and C.C. Sabathia of the Yankees.

Hernandez, who went just 13-12, pitched more innings than any other American League pitcher and led the majors with a 2.27 earned run average and was second in the A.L. in strikeouts.

He garnered 21 of 28 first-place votes. Read More.

Nov. 17, 10:08 p.m. |Original Post

Fred Thornhill/Reuters Felix Hernandez was 13-12 this season. Usually, 13-12 pitchers are never in the discussion for the Cy Young Award.

It was so easy on Tuesday. Roy Halladay won the National League Cy Young Award, and the baseball community agreed it was the right choice. No name-calling, no accusations of idiocy by the voters. Halladay was just that good.

Don't expect the civility to last. The American League Cy Young will be announced Thursday, and I expect Felix Hernandez to win. As you may have heard, he was 13-12 this season. Usually, 13-12 pitchers are never in the discussion.

But this discussion is a lively one, even more than last season, when Tim Lincecum (15-7) and Zack Greinke (16-8) won the awards. Those pitchers, at least, had outstanding winning percentages. Hernandez was one game over .500. Giving him a pitcher's highest honor doesn't feel quite right.

Yet I believe Hernandez will win for two reasons:

1) He was dominant in many of the bedrock statistics: innings (1st), earned run average (1st), strikeouts (2nd). You don't have to look up the meaning of Base-Out Runs Saved or Win Probability Added or anything like that. The stats that have been on the backs of baseball cards for decades make the case quite well.

2) C.C. Sabathia and David Price will split the vote. Look, if you go with the best overall stats and choose the most dominant pitcher of 2010, it's Hernandez. If you use other criteria – like pitching under the pressure of a pennant race — there's no clear favorite. Sabathia was 21-7, Price was 19-6. Sabathia worked more innings, Price had a better E.R.A. Both pitched meaningful games all year.

So what kind of pitcher is more deserving: one with an ordinary record and better statistics, or one with an excellent record and slightly lesser statistics?

I asked Halladay about this on his conference call Tuesday, figuring his opinion would be revealing. It was, and I think it reflects the majority opinion of people in uniform. That is, wins still matter a lot.

"It's tough," Halladay said. "Obviously Felix's numbers are very, very impressive. But I think, ultimately, you look at how guys are able to win games. Sometimes the run support isn't there, but you sometimes just find ways to win games. I think the guys that are winning and helping their teams deserve a strong look, regardless of how good Felix's numbers are. It definitely could go either way; it's going to be interesting. But I think when teams bring guys over, they want them to, ultimately at the end of the day, help them win games."

I don't presume to know more than Roy Halladay about what constitutes pitching greatness. And I still like the won-lost record, mostly for the sake of continuity and tradition. Over the course of a career, won-lost record is important, because luck generally evens out over time. But in the framework of a season, 34 starts or so, it's not always revealing. Too many variables beyond a pitcher's control can mess it up.

Hernandez had 12 starts in which he allowed two earned runs or fewer and did not win. Price had five starts like that. Sabathia had three. Hernandez pitched in front of the worst A.L. offense of the designated-hitter era. That's not his fault. That's bad luck.

To me, these are the most compelling arguments against Hernandez: he pitched poorly in May, when the season started getting away from the Mariners, and he was 2-3 with a 4.28 E.R.A. in six starts against Texas, the best team in his division.

But let's face it — the Mariners were never going to contend this season, not with that offense. And in Hernandez's six starts against other playoff teams (the Yankees, the Twins and the Reds), he was 5-1 with a 1.08 E.R.A.

Sabathia and Price would be fine choices. They had brilliant seasons. So did a lot of other A.L. pitchers – Jered Weaver, Justin Verlander, Jon Lester, Cliff Lee, Clay Buchholz, Trevor Cahill. I don't have a vote, but I've endorsed Hernandez before, and I'll stick with it.

To me, durability, dependability and dominance are the most important qualities for a pitcher. Usually those lead to a lot of victories. This year, for Hernandez, they didn't. I can't hold that against him. I think he was the best pitcher in the league in 2010.